As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has tightened, with a recent NBC News national poll highlighting a virtual tie. With the margins between the two candidates razor-thin, the poll reveals a significant boost in Harris’ popularity, marking a major shift in the contest. Harris now holds a narrow lead over Trump, sparking new optimism for the Democrats.
Harris Leads in New Poll The NBC News poll shows Harris ahead by 5 points among registered voters, leading Trump 49% to 44%. This marks the first time the network has shown Democrats gaining an edge in the race for the White House, with Harris pulling ahead in what has become a highly competitive contest.
The poll reflects an extraordinary rise in Harris’ popularity, which has surged by 16 points since July. NBC pollsters note that this is the largest increase for any political figure in the network’s polling history since President George W. Bush’s post-9/11 surge. Pollsters attribute this rise to Harris’ perceived competence and physical and mental stamina, with many voters now seeing her as the more capable candidate.
“This election has shifted dramatically in Harris’ favor,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who co-conducted the survey. “Where Biden once faced significant obstacles, Harris now has a clearer path to victory.”
Trump’s Strength on Economic Issues Despite Harris’ recent gains, Trump remains strong on key economic issues like inflation and immigration. Republican pollster Bill McInturff warned that while Harris’ momentum is notable, Trump’s ability to rally support from undecided or wavering Republicans remains a factor to watch.
“We’ve seen this before,” McInturff commented, referring to Trump’s ability to galvanize his base in the 2016 and 2020 elections. His supporters, who remain deeply loyal, could still play a decisive role as election day approaches.
The poll results show that 71% of voters have already made up their minds, with only 11% still open to changing their vote. Harris holds the lead on issues such as abortion, temperament, and immigration rights, while Trump maintains his edge on the economy, border security, and the cost of living—key issues for a large portion of the electorate.
Key Demographics Swing Toward Harris One of the poll’s key revelations is the shift in critical voter demographics toward Harris following President Biden’s decision to step aside. Younger voters and Black voters, in particular, have moved heavily in favor of the vice president, driving her surge in the polls.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, Harris now enjoys a commanding 23-point lead (57% to 34%) after a nearly even split between Biden and Trump in July. This shift could significantly impact the election, as young voters are often seen as a crucial bloc in modern U.S. elections.
Harris has also seen a significant rise in support from Black voters, who now back her by a 78-point margin—up from Biden’s 57-point lead in July. This surge reflects her strong appeal within the African American community, which has long been a critical constituency for Democrats.
Female voters have similarly boosted Harris’ standing, with the poll showing a 21-point lead over Trump, compared to Biden’s earlier 11-point margin. These gains suggest Harris is resonating particularly well with women, who often play a key role as swing voters.
Mixed Support Among Latino and Independent Voters While Harris has made significant strides with younger and Black voters, Latino and independent voters remain more divided. Latino voters, who backed Biden 54% to 38% in July, now support Harris by a similar margin (54% to 35% for Trump).
Independent voters are proving more elusive. Biden had a 9-point advantage among independents in July (39% to 30%), but the latest poll indicates that many remain undecided between Harris and Trump. As in past elections, independents could prove decisive in this tight race.
A Shifting Political Landscape As the U.S. election draws nearer, the political landscape continues to shift. Kamala Harris’ rise in the polls reflects her increasing appeal among key demographic groups, and a broader change in voter sentiment following Biden’s exit. However, with Trump still holding firm on economic issues and the majority of voters having already made their decisions, the race remains far from settled.
Both candidates must focus on mobilizing their base and winning over undecided voters in the weeks to come. With the margins so narrow, every vote will count in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested elections in U.S. history.
As Jeff Horwitt aptly put it, “This election has shifted dramatically,” and while Harris currently appears to hold the upper hand, Trump’s resilient base could still be a significant force in the final stretch.
