India is reportedly preparing to intensify its exploitation of water resources from the Indus river system—a critical lifeline for Pakistan’s agriculture and power supply. This move comes in the wake of a deadly terror attack in Kashmir on April 22, which killed 26 civilians and which New Delhi attributes directly to Islamabad. In response, India has suspended its participation in the historic 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, signaling a significant shift in its approach to water diplomacy.
Despite a subsequent ceasefire following some of the worst cross-border hostilities in decades, the treaty remains in abeyance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has since greenlit an aggressive acceleration of projects aimed at harnessing waters from the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers—three of the six rivers traditionally allocated to Pakistan under the treaty framework.
One of the most ambitious projects under consideration involves doubling the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River—from 60 km to 120 km. This would significantly increase India’s capacity to divert water from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second. Although the canal predates the treaty, its expansion represents a bold and provocative shift, challenging long-standing norms of transboundary water sharing. According to a Reuters report citing six government sources and documents, these plans are proceeding despite the ceasefire.
The implications of these developments are profound. Agriculture, the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, is especially vulnerable. Around 80% of the country’s farmland depends on water from the Indus system. Disruptions in flow could devastate staple crops such as wheat, rice, and cotton, causing yields to plummet and farming costs to rise.
Urban areas like Karachi and Lahore, which rely on Indus waters for drinking supply, could also face acute shortages, potentially sparking public unrest. Additionally, one-third of Pakistan’s electricity comes from dams fed by the Indus. Reduced water flow would threaten power generation, disrupting industries and exacerbating economic stress.
The broader economic and social fallout could be dire. The Indus system supports 237 million people and contributes nearly 25% to Pakistan’s GDP. Any significant cut in water access could lead to food shortages, factory shutdowns, and increased rural-to-urban migration. Internally, it could inflame tensions between provinces like Punjab and Sindh, which already experience friction over water distribution.
Politically, the risks are escalating. Islamabad has labeled India’s treaty suspension an “act of war,” and the situation threatens to spiral into a full-blown diplomatic or even military confrontation. In the short term, experts estimate that India could reduce water flow to Pakistan by 5–10%. However, over the long term, a combination of dams, reservoirs, and canals could drastically curtail Pakistan’s water supply over the coming years.
Further compounding tensions, India is now eyeing five new water storage projects on the Chenab and Jhelum tributaries—an unprecedented move in the context of the Indus system. Simultaneously, there is a significant push to boost hydropower capacity in Kashmir from the current 3,360 MW to a staggering 12,000 MW.
Prime Minister Modi has added fuel to the fire with a resolute declaration: “Water and blood cannot flow together,” casting water as a powerful strategic lever in India’s counter-terrorism doctrine. India maintains that the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan takes “credible and irrevocable” steps to end its support for cross-border terrorism.
However, strategic analysts caution that such a hardline stance could backfire. David Michel, a water security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warns that India’s weaponization of water could invite similar actions from China, which controls crucial upstream waters feeding into India.
In summary, while India’s evolving water strategy is framed as a national security response, it has opened a geopolitical Pandora’s box. The Indus is no longer just a river—it has become a battlefield.
