In a surprising turn that could mark the beginning of the end of the prolonged U.S.-China trade war, reports suggest that both nations are on the brink of agreeing to tariff reductions exceeding 100%. The potential deal represents a dramatic shift from the steep levies that have rattled global markets and strained supply chains for months.
High-level discussions concluded on Sunday in Geneva, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng reported “substantial progress.” While a formal agreement has yet to be signed, the White House has hinted that a deal is within reach.
According to analysts at Wedbush, the developments are overwhelmingly positive for global markets. “More progress has come out of these Swiss talks than even the bulls were hoping for,” they noted in a Monday briefing. The firm anticipates a steep reduction in the 145% tariffs imposed earlier this year by Washington, potentially along with a pause on any additional levies as talks continue.
Bessent emphasized the momentum behind the negotiations, describing them as “productive” and rapid. Greer added that the speed at which both sides bridged previously “intractable” gaps suggests that the differences may not have been as vast as initially believed.
This marks the first face-to-face meeting between negotiators since President Donald Trump imposed the aggressive 145% tariffs on Chinese imports earlier this year. China retaliated swiftly with 125% tariffs of its own and restrictions on rare earth exports.
Although exact rollback figures were not disclosed, President Trump hinted on social media late Friday at an 80% reduction, while noting that the final decision would be left to Bessent. A joint statement is expected soon, which should clarify the scope and timeline of the tariff cuts, and how they will impact U.S. ports, retailers, and manufacturers.
The trade war has left deep scars. In April, China’s exports to the U.S. dropped by 21% year-over-year. Meanwhile, American logistics, trucking, and warehousing sectors have suffered from plummeting import volumes and disrupted operations, while Chinese factories continue scrambling to reroute their trade channels.
